Ahead of the World Cup, Fifa has signed a prediction market partner. But the company, ADI Predictstreet, which is backed by the Abu Dhabi royal family, has no working product yet, is unlicensed in almost all jurisdictions and is run by a man who last year paid a six-figure sum to settle an accusation of insider trading in India.
By Martin Calladine
Additional reporting by Philippe Auclair and Sam Kunti.
In early January 2026, a gambler bet $30,000 USD on Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro losing power by the end of the month. The following day, the US military seized Maduro and flew him out of the country, netting the lucky punter a profit of more than $400,000 USD.
For many people, reports of this suspect bet were the first time they’d heard of “prediction markets,” a new form of gambling, born in the United States, which allows customers to bet on almost any measurable outcome.
The largest of these companies, Polymarket and Kalshi, have attracted enormous attention and grown rapidly as people have sought to bet on everything from football matches to geopolitical events. But with this increased profile have come concerns about users profiting from exploiting insider information, including claims that people connected to the US government have been betting on US military action in Iran. Separately, Polymarket, where Donald Trump Jr. serves as
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